“It’s good to have conversations about ‘shy’ Trump voters and other reasons why the polls might be wrong, but the presence of these conversations is a bearish sign for Trump… For now, most of Trump’s ~30% winning chances stem from the fact that there are still 2 months to go and the race doesn’t have to tighten that much for the Electoral College to be competitive. But if the polls still look like this in Nov. his chances will be lower (~10% or so)” – Nate Silver tweeted today.
This tracks with what Silver wrote introducing his model last month: “The uncertainty in our current 2020 forecast, conversely, stems mostly from the fact that there’s still a long way to go until the election. Take what happens if we lie to our model and tell it that the election is going to be held today. It spits out that Biden has a 93 percent chance of winning. In other words, a Trump victory would require a much bigger polling error than what we saw in 2016.”