After watching both the Trump and the Biden town halls Thursday night in their entireties, I really need to decompress with some general takeaways from the two events.  So here it goes:

• These two events were like night and day, 100% of which was caused by the two candidates.  It had absolutely nothing to do with the moderators or the questioners.  If Biden was facing Savannah Guthrie and Miamians, it would have been civil and informative.  If Trump was in Philly on stage with George Stephanopoulos, you’d still have a shit show worse than the one Trump had in Philly in mid-September.
• Trump’s debate coach is, by my estimation, Patches O’Houlihan from “Dodgeball.”  His entire strategy was dodge, dip, duck, dive, and dodge… adding deflect, deny and defile to the list.  Trump never directly answered a question.

• When Trump tried to answer a question, he failed spectacularly.  Claiming to not know anything about QAnon over and over–but then stating that he knew they were against pedophilia–was his charlatan act gone bad.  He knows QAnon and just gave them a national platform where they were portrayed as an honorable group, not a batch of whacko conspiracists.  Just as Trump’s “Stand down and stand by” message to the Proud Boys, Trump elevated them.
• Biden is the polar opposite of Trump:  calm, measured, attentive and clear.  He didn’t interrupt the moderator or the questioners.  He addressed the questions asked.
• Trump’s sexism was evident tonight.  On at least two occasions he dismissed Savannah Guthrie, saying once, “Are you listening?” and another “So cute.”  That’s not going to endear him to women voters.
• Trump does not prepare for these events.  He freestyles, and he does it badly.  He thinks volume of words equates to quality of words.  It doesn’t, and it shows.
• Biden shot straight, even when the answer wasn’t popular with the person asking it.  Take, for example, the guy who asked if Trump should get credit for foreign policy successes.  Biden said directly, “A little, but not a lot.”  Biden could have noted that in the case of Israel and its agreements with the UAE and Bahrain, Trump went after low-hanging fruit between nations that already had informal relations and had never had hostilities.  The look on the questioner’s face showed that he was not pleased with Biden’s response.  But Biden was honest, and Biden was right.
• Trump cannot be transparent, and it’s very clear he cannot answer questions about his health or his finances because he knows it would sink what remains of his campaign.  He was asked when he last took a coronavirus test; he refused to answer.  He was asked about how much he paid in taxes; he refused to answer.  He was asked who he owes money to; he refused to answer.
• Trump doesn’t understand the depths of the coronavirus pandemic in the United States.  He claimed, quite idiotically, that 85% of people who wear masks get COVID; that’s a lie.  He claimed there was a cure; that also is a lie.  He claimed that Dr. Scott Atlas, a neuroradiologist, is “one of the great experts in the world.”  He bit around the edges of the “herd immunity” push but didn’t take a chunk out of the cookie by fully endorsing it.
• Biden was factually correct through nearly all of his town hall, although I do think he fudged a little bit on his history with the 1994 crime bill.  Regardless of that, Biden’s knowledge of the topics greatly exceeds Trump’s across the board.  Biden has plans; Trump has talking points.
• Trump will continue to complain that Biden isn’t questioned about Burisma.  Or about “Obamagate”.  Or about masking.  He will use this in the next week to whine about how unfair the media is, and he’ll try to make it an issue in the next debate.
• Biden needs to tighten his messages for the debate against Trump scheduled for next week.  Trump will continue to try to stomp over Biden’s answers, so Biden needs to have a good 5-10 second response to engage the audience.
• Judging by the reaction of the questioners, Trump didn’t gain any of the independent or undecided voters with his responses, and he may have lost a couple.  The lady who asked about protections for abortions for women whose lives are in danger looked unsatisfied and confused by Trump’s answer and pivot to the Barrett nomination.   The answer about DACA left everyone’s head spinning.  And his response to the daughter of the ER doc, who asked about masks, was a flat-out lie because Trump is on tape mocking Biden and others for wearing masks.
• Biden connects with people.  Trump tries to command people.
• I expect the Trump Administration and/or campaign to try to drop a major bombshell before the next debate–something completely made up about Biden having had a stroke or another Hunter Biden blank shot.  Trump needs new talking points, and the economy isn’t working for him.
• Trump will never get the list of people he owes money to to Guthrie, as he promised.
• Finally, watching objectively, Trump is not well.  He had moments where he was gasping for air, typically in heated exchanges with Guthrie.  He didn’t rise from his chair at all.  And the way he was “sitting”–halfway leaning on the stool–is a way to help people who are having trouble breathing so your diaphragm isn’t compressed.  He was sweaty.  He had a short fuse, even for him. His evasion of the questions about his health magnify these signs.