Organizers of the drive to land an abortion rights measure on the 2024 ballot in Florida tell Politico Playbook they’re on track to get the 891,523 valid signatures required by the end of the year to make it, having already gotten 1.4 million signers (200,000 registered Republicans included).

Now since you’re probably asking how 500,000 more than the minimum equals “on track” rather than “a done deal,” here’s an explainer from Ballotpedia: “Florida also has a signature distribution requirement, which requires that signatures equaling at least 8 percent of the district-wide vote in the last presidential election be collected from at least half (14) of the state’s 28 congressional districts,” requiring a thorough review to make sure they got them in enough places.

The organizers sound confident enough as, per Politico’s reporting, they’re sending their canvassing vendor home early and deploying volunteers for the mop-up. So the true test is going to be getting past the DeSantis Regime, who are without a doubt going to make the kind of shit Ohio Republicans tried to pull to stop this year’s abortion ballot measure there look like it was sponsored by Planned Parenthood and probably the real reason the organizers already have more than 150 percent of the legally required signatures. All that extra padding is unfortunately necessary.

We’re not going to be like “Oh Trump’s in BIG trouble in Florida next November if this abortion measure is on the ballot,” because that’s just stupid. He’s still going to win the state, even if there’s serious pro-choice turnout. That’s not to say that turnout isn’t potentially going to be a major headache for him, however. Right off the bat he’ll be forced to invest more money in what’s otherwise a safe red state while Biden can largely just coast on the pro-choice groups’ spending.

Then there’s the political optics of it: It’s easy to see the Trump campaign sending lawyers to join cases brought by DeSantis’s minions to challenge the validity of the petition and its wording on the ballot and all that. How’s that going to look while the media have been giving Trump a pass on abortion politics? His whole strategy is to “moderate” while telling indie voters “Forget that I ended Roe v Wade, I’m not going to do anything else to restrict abortion” while winking at the Evangelicals as if to say “Just play along with it.” Having these referenda on the ballot right next to his name makes all that much harder if Trump and his minions can’t leave it alone. They probably won’t.