In their first rating of the 2024 presidential election, the eggheads at Sabato’s Crystal Ball have found only Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and Wisconsin as toss-ups in a Biden v Trump rematch.
Biden starts out at 260 safe/lean/likely Electoral College votes while Trump begins with 235, putting him in a deeper hole. Winning Arizona, Georgia, or Wisconsin alone puts Biden over the top at 270 (with or without Nebraska’s 2nd District, which Biden won). All three of the states reelected their incumbents last year and Crystal Ball notes “the actual results from recent elections, which suggested significant problems for Trump, seem to be a better guide than off-year polling.”