“NASA analysis of a near-Earth asteroid designated 2024 YR4 indicates it has a more than 1 percent chance of impacting Earth on Dec 22, 2032 – which also means there is about a 99 percent chance this asteroid will not impact. Such initial analysis will change over time as more observations are gathered. Currently, no other known large asteroids have an impact probability above 1 percent.”
“Asteroid 2024 YR4 was first reported on Dec 27, 2024, to the Minor Planet Center – the international clearing house for small-body positional measurements – by the NASA-funded Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System station in Chile. The asteroid, which is estimated to be about 130 to 300 feet wide, caught astronomers’ attention when it rose on the NASA automated Sentry risk list on Dec 31, 2024. The Sentry list includes any known near-Earth asteroids that have a non-zero probability of impacting Earth in the future. There have been several objects in the past that have risen on the risk list and eventually dropped off as more data have come in. New observations may result in reassignment of this asteroid to 0 as more data come in,” says a NASA blog post.