“Erick is about to make landfall along the southern coast of Mexico. Its rapid strengthening episode has ended, likely due to the interaction with land. The eye has become obscured on satellite imagery, and the intensity is adjusted to 120 kt in agreement with the latest objective estimates from UW/CIMSS. Erick remains an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane. However, rapid weakening will occur after the center moves inland and the system moves over the mountainous terrain of Mexico,” says a National Hurricane Center bulletin on the very freaking early season storm
“Smoothing out the trochoidal wobbles in the track, the motion estimate, 310/8 kt, remains about the same as before. This general motion, on the south side of a weak mid-level ridge, is likely to continue until the system dissipates within the next day or two. The official track forecast is just slightly west of the previous one and close to the latest corrected consensus, HCCA, guidance.”