One of the methods that politicians in trouble sometimes use is the publication of polls that show they enjoy a high level of support in their home state or district. The theory behind this practice is the use of the “bandwagon effect”, politicians hope that their voters will see the claims of strong support from the community, and decide that passing scandal really isn’t so bad, and they should ignore all of the bad news and continue supporting their guy. Child sex trafficking suspect and FL-1 House Representative Matt Gaetz has just provided the country with an excellent example of how politicians use this kind of tactic.
On April 10th at 8:52 pm Matt Gaetz published a tweet with the suspicious claim that “I had no role in commissioning this poll, but the results do not surprise me.” The poll that he linked to claimed, among other things that over 63% of FL-1 residents do not believe he is guilty, and over 71% don’t believe he should resign. The poll specifically mentioned that 8% of respondents don’t think he should resign even if he is guilty. The poll then makes several claims regarding the possibility of the GOP nomination in FL-1 going to other candidates, but then cautions that other candidates should tread cautiously, as most Republicans in the district don’t believe Gaetz should resign.
The write-up for the poll makes an interesting claim: “If Gaetz is in fact innocent, this data could be a silver lining for him, as it suggests that if voters no longer believe he is guilty, he could regain the support of more than 85% of those who believe he should resign.” The key phrase here is “if voters no longer believe he is guilty”. The use of that phrase, rather than “if Gaetz is found innocent in a court of law”, suggests nefarious intent. The pollster is making clear to the Florida Policy Wonks who will pick up on that distinction in the language that “truth isn’t truth”, and what voters believe is more important than whether Gaetz is guilty or innocent. This coincides with Gaetz gas-lighting tweet from yesterday where he claimed Democrats were trying to “cancel” him. It appears that Gaetz believes if he can mount a successful propaganda campaign to convince FL-1 Republicans that he is the victim of a “Deep State liberal conspiracy funded by George Soros and probably those bastards at National Zero as well”, then he can manage to win re-election, regardless of the outcome of his trial. Gaetz appears to be attempting a “post-truth re-election campaign”, where convincing the gullible is more important than actual facts regarding his guilt or innocence.
Red flags in the polling report include that the poll leaves out questions about what news sources respondents typically rely on, and also avoids any question along the lines of “Do you believe that sitting members of Congress are only indicted when the evidence against them is overwhelming?” The poll also fails to offer any demographic breakdown other than “Over 400 Republican respondents from FL-1”. There’s absolutely no mention of age, race, or education level of the respondents. There are also several problems with the Victory Insights polling company. Their company website does not list a home office address, nor does it name any staffers involved with their polling operations. An ICANN search on the victory-insights.com url reveals that the web address is anonymously registered, and their server is hidden behind Cloudflare. There’s also no mention of any company principles, past polling clients, or work associated with any particular campaign. A review of the Victory Insights twitter feed reveals a history of work with Florida Republican candidates who are closely aligned with Donald Trump and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis.
Gaetz denial of any part in commissioning the Victory-Insights poll should be ignored as it’s largely irrelevant. These kinds of oddly worded push polls by shadowy polling companies are often paid for by PACs and party committees that, while they are not technically the candidate’s own campaign, they might as well be. The numerous red flags cited above suggest Gaetz poll is a desperate attempt at establishing a baseline of propaganda to support him running for re-election, even if he’s indicted and ultimately convicted of Federal Crimes.