David Graham: “There’s an intuitive logic to the idea that protests, rioting, and racial tension will benefit President Trump’s reelection effort. Trump seems to thrive on chaos, and his 2016 election was driven in large part by racial resentment and fear among white voters. Therefore, ginning up white racial resentment now might be one thing—perhaps the only thing—that can save the president’s foundering campaign. A parade of pundits, generally of the center-right or moderate, Trump-skeptical variety, emerged late last week to demand that Biden denounce violence forcefully (he had, and has again since) or deliver a ‘Sister Souljah moment’ (however misleading that shorthand is) or else risk losing the election.”

“Between [the June BLM protests] and Blake’s shooting, on August 23, the protests simmered down nationwide, and the gap between Biden and Trump narrowed from more than 10 points to about six, right about where it was at the end of May, per RealClearPolitics’ average. What happened? The country’s racial division receded somewhat from focus, sharing the spotlight with other stories, and Trump avoided the topic. The fact is that voters don’t like the way the president talks about race, and the moments when his disapproval spikes are often those when he is stoking racial division, such as in June or after the violent white-supremacist march in Charlottesville, Virginia, in August 2017. Yet Trump is now determinedly forcing the national conversation back to the topic on which he fares worst. His words the past two days show why it tends to backfire. Even Americans who might be rattled by the prospect of rioting, and therefore susceptible to a more disciplined (if no less practically racist) argument from Trump, react poorly to the things he actually says when he tries to seize the moment of political opportunity.”