Moody’s: “Even allowing for some variability in the accuracy of the economic modeling and underlying assumptions that drive our analysis, we conclude that Biden’s economic proposals would result in a stronger U.S. economy than Trump’s. Largely because of Biden’s substantially more expansive fiscal policies, the economy would return to full employment more quickly coming out of the pandemic than under Trump—in the second half of 2022 under Biden compared with the first half of 2024 under Trump.”
“Biden’s reversal of Trump’s policies on foreign trade and immigration would also contribute to stronger economic growth, so that by the end of their terms in 2024, real GDP would be $960 billion, or 4.5%, larger under Biden than Trump. This translates into 7.4 million more jobs under Biden than Trump. Longer-run growth also receives more of a boost under Biden’s policies, since they lift both labor force participation and productivity growth, though the effect is modest over the 10-year horizon of the analysis. It takes longer for Biden’s focus on educational attainment, clean energy and other infrastructure, elder care, and paid family leave to have a significant impact on the economy’s long-run growth potential. And Biden’s increase in corporate tax rates dents business investment and productivity growth.