Jonathan Bernstein: “On Oct. 6, 2017, I said it was very likely that the 2020 elections would produce unified government at the federal level one way or another. So how’s that looking? Not bad, for a long-range prediction. The Cook Political Report rates 222 House seats as ‘Leans Democratic’ or better for that party, meaning that even if Republicans were able to sweep all 28 toss-up seats they’d need to find five more (while also protecting each of their own). Not only that, but the vast majority of recent rating changes at Cook and similar organizations have moved in the Democrats’ direction. At this point, it’s unlikely that even a significant late surge for President Donald Trump and the Republicans would be enough to get them to 218 House seats.”

“It’s also still a good bet that the next president will have at least a slim Senate majority, not least because the vice president would be the tiebreaker if the chamber has a 50-50 split. The Economist’s model gives Democrats a 67% chance of gaining a Senate majority, while FiveThirtyEight gives them 62%. Former Vice President Joe Biden is leading in the polls (and in both prediction models) right now; if he fades, so would Democratic Senate candidates. It’s certainly possible that Biden could win while the Democrats failed to reach 50 seats or that Trump could win despite Republicans losing a net of four or more from their current 53. But I’d be surprised. (All this assumes that Trump’s attempts to overturn the election results if he loses — which he mused about again on Wednesday — are unsuccessful. Yes, we’ve reached the point where such disclaimers are necessary. No, that isn’t good news for U.S. democracy.)”