Poll analytics site FiveThirtyEight has set Donald Trump’s chances of winning the November election at just 21%, tying its lowest rating in the last three months. Democratic nominee Joe Biden sits at 78%, just one point short of his high.
According to the site’s analysis, Trump has been on a month-long decline as Biden’s chances have increased consistently over the last 30 days. While the data show that Biden is favored to win, it does not rule out scenarios where Trump could squeeze out an Electoral College victory. FiveThirtyEight notes that there an 11% chance that Biden wins the popular vote but loses the Electoral College.
FiveThirtyEight is not a poll aggregator, which posts averages of various poll results. It uses a more sophisticated analysis of information, including polls, voting registrations, and voter enthusiasm metrics, to calculate outcomes in both state and national votes.