Wall Street Journal: “A new Wall Street Journal/NBC News study has found no evidence, so far, of the kind of late surge toward President Trump among undecided voters that helped produce his unexpected wins in 2016. When pollsters asked themselves how so many missed signs that Mr. Trump would win the 2016 election, one factor they identified was a late swing toward him in the last days of the campaign. About 13% of voters in Wisconsin, Florida and Pennsylvania settled on their candidate choice in the week before the last election, a report by a professional association of opinion researchers found. Those voters broke for Mr. Trump by 30 percentage points in Wisconsin and by 17 points in Florida and Pennsylvania, helping to deliver narrow victories, the study said.”
“This month, the Journal/NBC News poll went looking for signs of a similar, late shift—and found a different picture than in 2016. Undecided voters seem to be moving equally toward both candidates. The study wasn’t a formal poll but rather a set of questions put to 184 voters who had answered WSJ/NBC surveys from June through September. In those initial interviews, they had suggested that they were undecided or only tentatively supporting a candidate.”