The most important races, now, aren’t for the White House.  They’re for the Senate, and they need to be decided before January 6th to prevent a McConnell debacle.

Based on math, it looks like Biden will pull out a victory in the Electoral College.  With Nevada, Michigan and Pennsylvania rolling up Biden votes, he’ll finish with at least Electoral College votes.

But let’s turn our sights on to the ballot tallying in Georgia and North Carolina.  Based on the number of outstanding votes in each state, it’s possible that Biden could eke out victories there, too.

But those are not the races we should be looking for.  Democrats *really* need the outstanding votes to break for the states’ respective Democratic Senate candidates as much as for Biden.

With Gary Peters looking like he’ll pull out a victory in Michigan, the focus needs to go to Jon Ossoff and Cal Cunningham to win those Senate seats outright.  Looking at the numbers of outstanding ballots and assuming that the Senate’s uncounted ballots follow the trends of the presidential race, it’s very possible both could win their races.

Democrats need these races wrapped quickly because Congress gets seated January 6th.  If republicans hold a majority–because of contested races or because both Georgia Senate seats end up in a January 5th runoff that won’t be decided until after January 6th–Mitch McConnell will be the Senate Majority leader.

That means the republicans will be able to set the rules for the Senate for the next two years.  Those rules are set during the first week of the Senate’s session, and they’re very difficult, though not impossible, to change during the session.

If McConnell believes that he will be in the minority after all the races are settled, he’ll pass rules that will make it virtually impossible for Democrats to pass anything during the first two years of a Biden administration.  He’ll reimplement the 60 vote rules for judges.  He’ll require mandatory hearings to delay legislation.  He’ll mandate members must be sitting on unicorns to vote.  (Okay, *maybe* not that last one, but I wouldn’t put it past him.)

If he thinks he’ll have the majority, he’ll castrate the minority’s power, including reimplementing the 60 vote rule for judges to fend off a handful of defecting republicans on potential judicial appointments.

Three scenarios could prevent McConnell’s power grab.  The first would be the best:  both Cunningham and Ossoff are declared outright winners, giving Democrats 50 seats in the Senate versus republicans’ 49, with the Georgia runoff pending for January 5th.

The second is that Cunningham wins outright while Ossoff gains enough votes to pull David Perdue under 50% of the vote, requiring another runoff in Georgia.  That would put the Senate at 49-49, with Vice President Kamala Harris being the tiebreaker.

The third:  Georgia’s runoff(s) are both called the night of January 5th for Democrats, which in Georgia isn’t a likely outcome because of republican skullduggery in the state.  If it’s clear Democrats will take one or both seats, republican Georgia Governor Brian Kemp will delay calling the election(s) at the behest of McConnell.

EDIT:  In discussing this scenario with my wife–a very smart lady, indeed–she pointed out two things.  First, California Governor Gavin Newsome will have to appoint a successor for Kamala Harris’s seat immediately.  Second, the Georgia Senate runoffs cannot have a long, drawn-out recount because the rules of the Senate are actually adopted after the new President of the Senate–the Vice President–is seated.  But the best case scenario is having both these races decided immediately and cleanly.