Politico: “Gov. Gavin Newsom is in a strong position to defeat a likely recall vote, according to a new poll of California voters. A double-digit majority of likely voters said they would vote to retain Newsom, with 56 percent saying they would keep him versus 40 percent seeking to jettison the Democratic governor, according to a Public Policy Institute of California poll released Tuesday night. The favorable poll bolsters Newsom’s argument that a recall fueled by pandemic fatigue will fall flat in Democrat-heavy California. While the effort to oust him hasn’t yet formally qualified for the ballot, it is overwhelmingly likely to go before voters in the fall. Newsom has launched a campaign in his defense and begun enlisting national Democratic luminaries, including Sen. Bernie Sanders, Sen. Elizabeth Warren and voting rights advocate Stacey Abrams.”

“Overall, Newsom has a 53 percent approval rating, down from his peak of 65 percent in May 2020. That includes 77 percent approval among Democrats and a slight edge among no-party-preference voters, a growing constituency that makes up a quarter of voters and approves of Newsom 49 percent to 46 percent. If Newsom can retain his position in the polls, that makes it less likely that another Democrat who senses vulnerability breaks ranks and chooses to run as a backup, which in turn could cut into Newsom’s support and make it more likely he’s recalled. PPIC President and CEO Mark Baldassare said Newsom needs to preserve support among Democrats, as former Gov. Gray Davis failed to do en route to voters recalling him in 2003. ‘The key is the governor’s ability to continue to maintain his base,’ Baldassare said. ‘That’s what got him elected in 2018, and that’s what will be key to his survival in 2021.'”