Back in the late 1970s and early ‘80s, a series of books from a group of authors responsible for The People’s Almanac hit the best sellers list. Two editions of Book of Lists compiled by David Wallechinsky, Amy Wallace and Irving Wallace asked scientists, politicians, researchers and pop culture icons everything from their favorite albums to the greatest inventions of all time.
It was a lighthearted mix of trivia, opinion and gossip that kept people occupied. And as a young reader, it was fun to get a glimpse into the opinions of people from a wide variety of fields.
In 1981, Wallechinsky, Wallace and Wallace took on another project, The Book of Predictions, a look at what some of those same scientists, politicians, researchers and pop culture icons saw the future progressing. A few weeks ago, I found my copy of the book (purchased as a beach read in 1981 for $3.95), and thought I’d share some of the forecasts along with a scale on how correct their predictions were, with 10 being spot-on and 1 being way off.
- Attorney F. Lee Bailey predicted that by 1992, the “nine old men” on the Supreme Court would be “nine old people,” with four or five of the justices being women. The Court has three women on it, the make-up of which started in 2010. Accuracy: 7
- Dr. Albert Ellis, executive director of Rational-Emotional Therapy in New York City: by 2020, “more than 90% of single men and 85% of single women will have premarital sexual relations. Accuracy: 10
- Dr. Jerrold Maxmen, assistant professor of psychiatry at Albert Einstein College of Medicine in New York City said that by 2020: 95% of people would have their medical records stored in a National Medical Database; “mood disorders” would be controlled using electrical stimulus; and people would be able to hibernate indefinitely. Accuracy: 2
- Libertarian Party policy advisor and Polytechnical Institute of New York professor Murray Rothbard predicted that the US and all the world’s governments would be back on the gold standard by the early 2000s, and that “Industries will be deregulated rapidly and across the board. Energy will be freed at last and will become cheaper and more abundant and government land, hoarded off the market, will be opened up to production.” Accuracy: 3
- “The Messiah of LSD” Timothy Leary said that by 1992, the US and Canada would unite and form CanAmerica, where all laws would be decided by electronic voting systems. By 2030, Leary said that the greatest migration to foreign planets would happen from North America, with more than 300 million migrating to space. Accuracy: 0
- David Sullivan, a Soviet foreign policy analyst for the CIA predicted that by 1993, “the US will cease to be a great power and will be struggling to hold itself together as a viable nation. The Soviet Union will be approaching hegemony over most of the world.” Accuracy: 0
- Psychic Alan Vaghan forecasted that gas powered cars would be banned by metropolitan areas in the US, Europe and Asia by 1991, replaced by battery powered vehicles. (He’s off by about 40 years, but give him credit.) Accuracy: 8
- Marathoner Jim Fixx, author of The Book of Running which started the running fitness craze of the 1970s, said that in 2030, he would run the Boston Marathon at the age of 98. That’s unlikely, given that Fixx died in 1984, three years after the book was published. Accuracy: 0
Some of the other predictions from panels or the authors:
- By the mid 2010s, the Soviets would use tachyon particles to transport information into the past to change the outcome of the future.
- Cancer was to be eradicated by 2005.
- By 2012, the Catholic church was supposed to have lifted bans on contraception, married priests and women in clergy.
- By 2020, newly-married couples are spending their honeymoons on the moon.
- Most agreed that by 2020 a significant number of people would be living and working in space.
- By 2015, mankind was to have formed a world government–but a plurality believed the Soviet Union would be the world power pushing for it.