Harry Enten, CNN: “It’s now less than two weeks until California’s recall election, and the latest polling suggests good news for Gov. Gavin Newsom. Polls show that an increasing percentage of voters say they’re going to vote ‘no’ on the recall. And while the polling average still suggests the possibility of the Democratic governor getting recalled, the chance that Newsom remains in office has increased significantly over the last few weeks. The biggest poll published this week came from the Public Policy Institute of California. A clear majority of likely voters, 58%, said they were voting ‘no’ on the recall. Just 39% indicated that they would vote to recall Newsom. It’s worth noting that the institute’s poll does show Republicans making up 4 points more of likely voters than registered voters in the poll. A turnout advantage for Republicans matches with what we’ve seen historically in California for off-year elections with a Democratic president. The degree of any Republican turnout advantage does differ from election to election.”

“But given the more than 20-point Democratic registration advantage in the state over the GOP, Republicans likely need a larger turnout advantage than the poll is showing in order to recall Newsom. It also should be noted that the institute’s prior polls have tended to suggest a wider advantage for ‘no’ on the recall than other polls. Early vote data from Edison Research may point to a slightly larger turnout gap in the GOP’s advantage relative to registration. About 5 million votes have already been cast (about 40% of the level in the last major off-year election, in 2018), and registered Democrats make up 53% of those ballots compared with 25% for Republicans. This is a 28-point gap between the parties. At this point in the 2020 cycle, the gap was closer to 35 points.”