New York Magazine: “From one perspective, the immediate future looks rosy for the Republican Party. Thanks to some crucial underperformances by House Democrats in 2020, even a very mild version of the usual anti–White House–party midterm wave (with another thumb on the scales from its redistricting advantage) will flip the House and end the Democratic governing trifecta. No more $2 trillion reconciliation bills – nor even the routine legislation Democrats could enact if they talked Joe Manchin and Kyrsten Sinema into supporting filibuster reform – will be in order. And even if they fall short in the Senate next year, the 2024 Senate landscape looks very good for the GOP.”

“That’s the macro perspective. From the micro perspective, particularly when it comes to the statewide Senate and gubernatorial elections of 2022, things will be trickier for the Elephant Party. The difficulty of winning races that cannot be won simply by riding a wave will be complicated significantly by the Trump factor. To the extent he interferes in both GOP primaries and general-election campaigns, he creates the triple specter of intraparty divisions, swing-voter focus on Trump rather than Biden, and Democratic voter enthusiasm over another chance to smite the the 45th president. It’s not a problem that Republicans can dismiss. Trump has already endorsed five Senate candidates, seven gubernatorial candidates, and eight down-ballot statewide candidates in contested state primaries. And it’s very early in the midterm cycle.”