Russian President and Republican Party leader Vladimir Putin risks losing everything with his hijinks in the Ukraine, as events in Ukraine are beginning to make him look like a “paper tiger” who is no longer any kind of threat to either the US or NATO.
Ukrainian president Volomdymir Zelenskyy does not seem especially worried about the prospect of a Russian invasion, and has urged the US to tone down the militant rhetoric. At a recent news conference, Zelenskyy said that: “I don’t consider the situation now more tense than before. There is a feeling abroad that there is war here. That’s not the case.”
Russian General Valery Gerasimov, reportedly denounced claims that Russia was preparing to attack Ukraine, insisting that troops were only engaged in exercises.
Putin’s main professed goal is wanting to prevent the Ukraine from joining NATO, however, it appears that Putin may be powerless to prevent such an outcome, and Putin’s powerlessness is rooted in the corrupt nature of the Russian economy. Vladimir Putin has surrounded himself with a collection of oligarch billionaires who, collectively, own a substantial share of the Russian economy. Having so much economic power in so few hands means that the US Government can effectively wage economic war on Russia by placing strict economic sanctions on a total of less than 100 individuals. Barring the 100 wealthiest Russians from the international banking system would effectively cripple the Russian economy and leave the country incapable of paying for a war. President Biden may also choose to ask Congress to pass legislation that would nationalize the US assets of Putin’s closest allies, a move that would highlight the GOPs close ties to the Russian government, and demonstrate just how reliant the Republican Party has become on the support of Russian billionaire donors.
The US should combine their efforts at embarrassing Putin economically with a propaganda campaign to make clear to the Russian people that the goal of the United States and NATO is to put the blame for conflict in the Ukraine squarely on Putin, and not on the Russian people. A successful campaign should promote the message that if Putin invested in education and economic development, instead of just lining his pockets with the proceeds of the dinosaur fossil fuel industry, then all Russians would be more prosperous and secure. Recent reports from Russia indicate the Russian people are skeptical of the likelihood of a war in the Ukraine, and feel there would “be no reason” for such a conflict.
One other thing the US should do is make pre-emptive statements against any effort on the part of the Kremlin to “wag the dog” in Ukraine. Given reports of the Russian people being disinterested in a war in the Ukraine, and of Vladimir Putin being absent from the airwaves in Russia and making no attempt to rally the country behind an upcoming war, there is a very real possibility that the Kremlin may try to use a staged attack to draw the country into a conflict. President Joe Biden could pre-empt this with a comment suggesting Putin may “do something crazy” like “blowing up a barracks full of his own troops to try to draw his country into a war, that way he can pursue his economic interest while telling the people that they’re doing it to avenge the young men and women who died.” Once someone suggests that kind of method is possible, it takes that option off the table for the Kremlin, and dramatically reduces the likelihood of a shooting war in the Ukraine.