NBC News producer Frank Thorp V tweets that Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell has recognized that he’s like to stay in the minority in the Senate–politically speaking, not white man speaking–because of the host of horrible, no good candidates Republicans have nominated in Senate elections.

“I think there’s probably a greater likelihood the House flips than the Senate. Senate races are just different, they’re statewide, candidate quality has a lot to do with the outcome,” McConnell said at a Kentucky fundraiser Thursday.

The statement recognizes the realities on the ground:  Democrats will likely hold on to seats in Georgia, where Democrat Raphael Warnock has a strong lead against GOP head trauma victim Herschel Walker; in Pennsylvania, where Democratic Lt. Gov. John Fetterman continues to open up a lead against carpetbagging TeeVee personality Mehmet Oz for a seat previously held by Republican Pat Toomey, who is retiring; and in Arizona, where Democrat Mark Kelly will likely hold his seat against Trump-endorsed Blake Masters.

Additionally, Democrats could pick up seats in Wisconsin and Ohio, as well as maintain their seat in New Mexico.  The race in Florida, where Val Demmings is challenging Republican incumbent Marco Rubio, is significantly closer than many pundits forecast, putting the race closer to a toss-up than a likely R reelection.

McConnell’s statement also implies what politics watchers have noted for decades:  GOP gains in the House of Representatives rely on extreme gerrymandering of districts, where politicians get to choose who will be electing them, rather than having voters decide.  In the 2020 elections, Democrats running for the House won 6% more of the popular vote, but only hold a 3% margin in seats.

Gerrymandering is so bad that in 2016, Democrats won 48% of the popular vote to Republicans 49.1%, but held 10% fewer seats than Republicans.