“Today, Public Policy Polling released a survey of Arizonans, showing that headed into the 2024 election, Senator Sinema is broadly unpopular and trails Rep. Ruben Gallego significantly in a three-way race. The poll shows Gallego at 40% and Republican Kari Lake at 41%, with Sinema in a distant third at 13%. As PPP’s memo (below) explains, the survey of over 650 Arizona voters shows ‘Ruben Gallego is considerably more popular in the state than Kyrsten Sinema and would be a top tier Senate candidate regardless of what she decides to do in 2024.’ While Sinema has no realistic path to victory in a 3-way race, Gallego would start effectively tied with the Republican. The only potential spoiler here is Sinema in her potential 3rd party run,” says a press release from Ruben Gallego’s campaign – which he still hasn’t officially launched as a 2024 Senate run yet.

Neither has Kari Lake (because she still thinks she’s going to be governor) but we would have to believe the 2024 Republican Senate nomination is hers if she wants it. In the two way races Gallego is tied with Lake at 48 to 47 percent while Lake leads Sinema by a wider 42 to 39 percent.

But looking at the three-way race it almost seems like it could actually end up with Sinema being the spoiler for Lake rather than for Gallego. Remember that Lake was undeniably if marginally favored going into the gubernatorial race against Hobbs. The few polls that didn’t have them tied put Lake in the lead by single digits, which tells us she’ll be overrated again in 2024 (and definitely even fucking crazier). So if the right-leaning suburban “moderate” types who didn’t actually like Lake but voted for her in 2022 anyway because they like Democrats even less are the ones Sinema is trying to appeal to here then it’s hard to see how that’s a disadvantage for Gallego.