An internal polling memo obtained by Roll Call from a West Virginia resort following a Senate GOP staff retreat held there reveals why it was supposed to stay internal, saying “there has been a 6 point swing in the last year on the Generic Senate ballot from R+3 to D+3. This movement is [led] overwhelmingly by Independent and NEW voters that identify abortion as one of their top issues.”

The “National Issue Study” by GOP-aligned pollster co/efficient last month also says “There has been a 10 point swing in the last year on the Generic House Ballot from R+6 to D+4. This movement is [led] overwhelmingly by Independent and NEW voters that identify abortion as one of their top issues… Reproductive Freedom is the #1 issue among those that DID NOT vote in 2020.”

“In March of 2022, Independent voters were breaking 3 to 1 for the Generic Republican. Today, Ind’s are breaking for the Generic Republican by only a few points. Nearly tied,” read a slide on the memo.

“Remember, don’t leave behind something you don’t want to see in Roll Call,” concludes Roll Call’s resident election data egghead Nathan Gonzales in the article. What a cheeky bastard.