In 23 days’ time there’s going to be a decision of monumental consequence made, one that will set the course of the next year and much beyond in American politics. It’s no overstatement to say that the start date of disgraced former President Trump’s Washington DC trial on charges he conspired to destroy American democracy following his humiliating defeat to Joe Biden in the 2020 election is going to go a long way toward determining the fate of American democracy itself going forward, and that’s exactly what’s in DC Circuit Judge Tanya Chutkan’s hands on August 28th.
Many, if not all of the gears for a clock that will tick inexorably to a dark midnight for Trump and his fanboys in 2024 are there, waiting for one crucial piece to be added by Chutkan. Consider:
🕚 Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg has twice signaled that his office would not oppose a postponement of the scheduled March 25, 2024 Trump trial on the Stormy Daniels hush money charges to make room for a federal trial – most recently last week in an interview with WNYC. It’s not his call to make and Chutkan will have to reach out to New York Judge Juan Merchan to coordinate it, but Bragg’s implied deference to Smith is not a good sign at all for MAGA Nation.
🕚 EJ Carroll could also make space for Smith as her second defamation trial against Trump is scheduled to start on January 15, 2024, though that one could be over quick as last week Carroll’s lawyer Roberta Kaplan moved to request that, since Trump was already found liable for it in the first case, the injury at issue is precluded so the jury should only be there to decide the damages. That being said, January 2024 might simply be too early despite Smith’s streamlining.
🕚 Getting Merchan to push the Manhattan trial back would ensure the coup plot case can be tried before the Mar-a-Lago documents shitshow, currently scheduled to start on May 20, 2024 but virtually certain to be delayed by feckless fangirl Judge Aileen Cannon who increasingly looks to be unequipped to handle such a complex case dealing with multiple defendants and byzantine issues of security clearances even if she wasn’t already obviously compromised by her love of Trump. Any scenario in which the coup plot trial is scheduled after the Mar-a-Lago one very likely kills off any chance of a conviction prior to election day, so it is extremely important that Cannon be boxed out.
Outside that main machinery there are other gears on the clock:
🕚 A new Reuters/Ipsos survey finds half of GOP voters say they would not vote for Trump if he’s convicted of a crime. Much more than half of those respondents are, quite obviously, 100 percent full of shit whether they know it now or not. But in an election where everything’s going to be on a knife’s edge it wouldn’t take that many sticking to the words they told a pollster to spell doom.
🕚 Super Tuesday is on March 5th, 2024. Barring a dramatic and unlikely change to the current GOP primary’s makeup, Trump will already have the nomination locked down by the time a trial starts. If the DC trial begins later that month you are looking at a convicted felon in the lead going into the RNC convention in Milwaukee in July. Trump’s not going to be taken down in a floor fight, but an ugly one will further weaken the entire party going into the final sprint in the fall.
🕚 JP Morgan economists are no longer forecasting a recession and revising their Q3 2023 GDP growth estimate from 0.5 to 2.5 percent. Friday’s labor report points to both further cooling inflation and a healthy job market. The House GOP has the means of sabotaging that at their disposal but no one should underestimate their ability to fuck it up and simply give away their leverage.
🕚 The “Biden Crime Family” conspiracy du jour has to be wearing thin on MAGA voters. There’s only so many times they can be promised a smoking gun only to be served a crack smoking guy who wasn’t supposed to be owning a gun. “Whistleblower” after “whistleblower” have imploded immediately on contact with basic scrutiny. How the fuck are they going to keep this up for another 15 months? They really in all seriousness might be better off with going all in on UFOs and Area 51.
🕚 Fulton County, Georgia District Attorney Fani Willis in the next few days will drop what appears to be a sprawling conspiracy case against Trump and his minions for their attempt to overturn the 2020 election in the state. While next year’s packed legal and political schedule forecloses any chance the trial will begin before the 2024 election, we don’t think any of this is going to be a good look for him considering the possibility of plea deals for the other defendants named.
It’s impossible to overstate how anarchic this next campaign year is going to be. If you thought Trump and his minions were fucking crazy when they knew the clock was ticking on them in the 2020 election with a raging pandemic and widespread civil unrest then try to picture a year from now if he’s been convicted on all four counts in DC but out on appeals, still on trial in Florida, and once again the Republican nominee for President of the United States. Just think of how terrified Republican candidates will be knowing that every moment of every Fox News appearance they can be spending bitching about the border and the economy is instead being wasted relitigating minute bullshit from a DC trial that ended three months earlier. Hoping and praying that the Supreme Court vacates the conviction before election day. Getting screamed at in town halls for not arresting Jack Smith. All while Trump himself grows more desperate and unhinged knowing he’ll die in prison if he doesn’t win the election, maybe even violates a release condition and hit with home confinement.
Chutkan can wind up this doomsday clock. The terrible power of a political weapon of mass destruction has been put in her hands. She can become Shiva, destroyer of MAGA worlds.