Having pulled the plug on the 2024 presidential election forecast model for after President Joe Biden dropped out of the race, the eggheads at FiveThirtyEight have accumulated enough polling data on Vice President Kamala Harris vs convicted felon former President Trump and… Well let’s just say some people are not going to be happy with it. And even less happy than they were when it showed Biden at circa 50 percent chance to win. That made a certain sense as the model didn’t solely rely on poll numbers but also historical patterns, incumbency, economic conditions, etc.
There’s a whole explainer on the site that doesn’t get into what if any changes were made Harris in terms of what kind of different parameters… Like the “incumbency” factor since that’s a little fuzzy.