A new ABC News/Ipsos national survey conducted after her debate victory on Tuesday finds Vice President Kamala Harris leading convicted felon former President Trump 51 to 46 percent among likely voters in a full field with all the third party spoiler scrubs included, exactly the same support for each of the candidates as the ABC/Ipsos found in a survey conducted late last month. Harris’s lead over Trump among independent likely voters and 18-29s is even wider at 53 to 44 percent. By gender men 18-29 support Harris 51 to 48, with young women it’s Harris 68 to Trump 30 percent.
On the debate, 58 percent of respondents overall said Harris won to 36 percent falsely declaring Trump the winner, the rest saying they don’t know. There was no partisan crosstab provided on that answer but it’s easy to guess that Republican respondents made up the majority of “don’t know.”
In what could potentially be a far more troubling sign for the Orange God Emperor, on the survey’s question of “Did the debate make you think more favorably or less favorably of each of these candidates?” 37 percent respondents said more favorably for Harris, 23 percent less favorably, and 30 percent no difference. For Trump it was 17 percent more favorably, 22 percent less, and 50 percent no change, putting the Veep at net +14 to the fat fuck’s -5 net. And yes, this could be pretty much meaningless as, despite the “no difference” option, there were no doubt plenty of those who already made up their minds about whom to vote for that said “more favorably” for their chosen candidate and vice versa for the other (would’ve helped if Ipsos gave us a crosstab for 2024 voter intent, especially when YouGov makes it look so fucking easy to lay out readably).
However when you put it up against what ABC/Ipsos found on the same questions after Joe Biden’s implosion after the June 27 CNN debate: 7 percent more favorably for Biden, 50 percent less favorably, 42 percent no change, to Trump’s 27 percent more, 22 percent less favorably, 50 percent no difference, that is a pretty dramatic shift in the standing of the respective tickets. Trump swung 10 percent into the red on net, while Harris shifted fucking 57 percent net into the black from Biden.