I’m feeling a bit bipolar politically. Half of me is a nervous wreck, looking at national polls that put Democratic nominee Kamala Harris up by only 3%, and doing mental mathematics to negate the impact of Republican-commissioned polls that tend to infect polls close to elections. That half is like, “How the fuck can it be this close? Have they not seen him?”
The other half of me is, “Dude. Chill. We got this.” Even the bad polls show that Trump has already peaked; with the exception of three polls from Republican-aligned interests–remember those mental gymanstics–Donald Trump hasn’t hit 50% in polls frequently since mid-August, even on the skewed-right RealClear sample. On the other hand, Harris routinely tops 50% on a variety of polls. The legendary “undecideds” aren’t breaking for Trump; they’re either voting for Harris or they’re not voting. Trump’s hit his ceiling; Harris hasn’t found hers yet.
The trend holds on the state level as well: in battleground states Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan, Trump infrequently reaches 50% or over. That was true largely for before Biden left the race as well, prior to his “Return of the Mummy” debate performance.
The “Dude” side also remembers that more than three-quarters of Republicans favored laws protecting access to abortion for patients with life-threatening conditions, and two-thirds favored laws protecting abortion in cases of rape and incest. But more importantly, 40% of Republican women did NOT want to “leave it to the states” for abortion access; they wanted federal protections, according to a Kaiser Family Foundation poll from this summer. Even Happy-Go-Lucky Jack knows that–What? There’s a Happy-Go-Lucky Jack deep in the soul of this grouchy curmudgeon–Even Happy-Go-Lucky Jack knows that not all of them will vote against Trump. But those who are pro-choice for Constitutional “keep gubment outta my vagina” reasons are now thinking, “If he took that right from me the last time he was in office…” and they don’t want to finish that sentence. They’re not going back.