Chinese Communist soybean processors have been turning away from US suppliers in favor of Brazil’s cheaper product in what Reuters reports is a preemptive strike against convicted felon President-Elect Trump’s anticipated trade war, at the expense of American farmers.
“Chinese crushers are now booking Brazilian cargoes for February and March shipment,” a trader in Singapore told Reuters. “Both state-owned and private crushers, all of them are taking Brazilian beans. It is a 100 percent shift to Brazil.” The US share of soybean supply to China’s state-owned and “private” industries has been steadily declining over the years, as in 2016 it was 40 percent, now down to 18 percent in 2024, even though nobody has done more for farmers than Trump, lol.
All this said, Reuters notes that beyond the not-absolutely-massive price difference of $420/ton for Brazilian soybeans vs $451/ton American there’s one key advantage US farmers have, at least as far as the Chicom government is concerned: “While private buyers turn to Brazilian supplies, traders said state stockpiler Sinograin is still in the market for US soybeans, which are preferred for stockpiling due to their higher oil content,” they write. Question now is how sticky is that preference for “higher oil content” if Trump demands even more hardship for his loyal farmers.