“Brad Schimel is in the midst of a monumental comeback and has pulled within striking distance of Susan Crawford in the Wisconsin Supreme Court race with less than two weeks to go until Election Day. Despite trailing Crawford by 13 points just two weeks ago, Schimel has now surged to within five points of Crawford (48-43) on the ballot in our latest survey, which is weighted to reflect the turnout of Wisconsin’s 2023 State Supreme Court election. When we adjust our sample to reflect November 2024 turnout, Schimel is within one point of Crawford (46-45) – a statistical tie,” says the intro to an internal memo by the Elon Musk-backed “Building America’s Future” PAC.

Schimel is the MAGA candidate and Susan Crawford is the Dem in the “officially non-partisan” race for the seat to replace a retiring liberal, so just like in the 2023 race won by lib Janet Protasiewicz, the court’s majority hangs in the balance and will likely mean a few US House seats too. Not to tempt fate here so much as pointing out where Musk’s minions are definitely getting a little too rosy, the “When we adjust our sample to reflect November 2024 turnout, Schimel is within one point of Crawford,” is freaking stupid. It won’t be November 2024 turnout and even when you literally had November 2024 turnout the state still reelected Dem Senator Tammy Baldwin, which should tell you Trump’s win was more about Trump himself brainwashing a shit ton of low-info dickheads into voting for him while that Eric Hovde schmuck couldn’t seal the deal with the same people.

Does that mean Susan Crawford has this in the bag? No. But an off-year early spring electorate is not going to resemble last November’s, with or without the outrage against DOGE right now.