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Moody’s blue about US credit rating

“Moody’s Ratings (Moody’s) has downgraded the Government of United States of America’s (US) long-term issuer and senior unsecured ratings to Aa1 from Aaa and changed the outlook to stable from negative. This one-notch downgrade on our 21-notch rating scale reflects the increase over more than a decade in government debt and interest payment ratios to levels that are significantly higher than similarly rated sovereigns. Successive US administrations and Congress have failed to agree on measures to reverse the trend of large annual fiscal deficits and growing interest costs. We do not believe that material multi-year reductions in mandatory spending and deficits will result from current fiscal proposals under consideration. Over the next decade, we expect larger deficits as entitlement spending rises while revenue remains broadly flat. In turn, persistent, large fiscal deficits will drive the government’s debt and interest burden higher. The US’ fiscal performance is likely to deteriorate relative to its own past and compared to other highly-rated sovereigns.”

“The stable outlook reflects balanced risks at Aa1. The US retains exceptional credit strengths such as the size, resilience and dynamism of its economy and the role of the US dollar as global reserve currency. In addition, while recent months have been characterized by a degree of policy uncertainty, we expect that the US will continue its long history of very effective monetary policy led by an independent Federal Reserve. The stable outlook also takes into account institutional features, including the constitutional separation of powers among the three branches of government that contributes to policy effectiveness over time and is relatively insensitive to events over a short period. While these institutional arrangements can be tested at times, we expect them to remain strong and resilient,” said Moody’s Ratings in an after-market close press release.

“Breathe deep the gathering gloom. Watch lights fade from every room. Bedsitter people look back and lament. Another day’s useless energy spent. Cold-hearted orb that rules the night. Removes the colours from our sight. Red is grey is yellow white. But we decide which is right. And which is an illusion,” the press release did not continue, though the austere darkness of it all was implied.

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