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Sabato’s Crystal Ball downgrades Joni Ernst’s seat

“Over this last weekend, for those of us who try to keep up with political news, it was hard to miss a headline from an Iowa town hall. When defending the Medicaid cuts that the popularly known ‘Big Beautiful Bill’ contained, Sen Joni Ernst (R-IA) scoffed, seemingly in frustration, ‘Well, we’re all going to die.’ Democrats, trying to make political hay out of the comment, replayed it frequently, and the quote quickly made its way into meme form. Shortly after the original town hall, Ernst posted a video to social media where she, citing her faith, sarcastically doubled down on her remark,” writes Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball/University of Virginia Center for Politics, going on to explain that the change from “Safe” to “Likely” was also prompted by Dem state Rep JD Scholten’s entry into the race.

Scholten came within 3 percent of defeating utterly fucking demented white nationalist Steve King in 2018 before taking a beating to King’s replacement, the now-Congressman Randy Feenstra in 2020. Scholten still outperformed Joe Biden in the deep red 4th District. He could prove formidable.

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