“The Emerson College Polling survey of the 2026 Republican US Senate primary in Texas shows a neck-and-neck race between incumbent Senator John Cornyn and Attorney General Ken Paxton, with Cornyn at 30 percent, Paxton at 29 percent, and 37 percent of voters still undecided,” says the often questionable-ish pollster in their intro to the first survey of the heated race in months.
This is by far the best result for Cornyn, and as such an extreme outlier. It’d be one thing if there was like a tightening where Pax’s 17 percent-ish average lead across previous findings fell while Corny gained, but it’s hard to imagine anyone sincerely taking this result seriously. Key word there emphasized because of course the establishment GOP are going to be demanding Paxton drop out immediately since there’s absolutely no path to victory for him after this devastating poll.