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Jaydee “thrashing” Newsom in “5 of 7 Swing States”: Breitbart poll

“Vice President JD Vance handily defeated Gov Gavin Newsom (D-CA) across seven battleground states in a theoretical presidential election matchup, according to a poll exclusively obtained by Breitbart News,” writes the right wing media site in an article that’s a little dodgy on the provenance of the poll as in whether it was “obtained exclusively” or actually sponsored by Breitbart.

The polling data sheet from “Plymouth Union Public Research” or “PUP Research” itself is more than a little dodgy, saying “Republican JD Vance won the vote in 5 out of the 7 swing states and won overall (Vance 51 percent, Newsom 49 percent). In a sample that is R+1 , this result tracks, but a deeper look at the internals reveals more.” The sheet then proceeds to not lay out said internals, saying only “Vice President Vance is winning Democrats (9 percent) at a higher clip than Newsom winning Republicans (7 percent).” They don’t even say which of the five states Jaydee is ahead in.

This might be the best part however:

Now this this shouldn’t need to be said, but this article isn’t about the predictive validity of some bullshit right wing pollster’s findings on a presidential election 38 months away so much as an examination of the flaws in a polling-shaped propaganda piece, flaws that should be glaringly apparent with one quick look at the above favorability rankings. It’s not that they “found” former Vice President Kamala Harris to have a slightly higher net favorability than Jaydee or that Newsom’s slightly lower net favorability to Vance’s somehow doesn’t drag on him more in a head-to-head, it’s that they didn’t print the Harris vs Vance matchup. There’s no fucking chance “PUP” tested Newsom vs Vance but not Harris vs Vance. Or Shapiro, +14 net favorability, vs Vance.

Even better, look at number 3 on the list. They tested Joe Biden’s favorability. Every single other one of them is actually legitimately a “prospective candidate” in 2028 and yet there’s only one “public figure” among the list. Meaning they DEFINITELY left someone else off on purpose. Those numbers must be fucking atrocious, even in some dogshit poll Breitbart probably paid for.

Created by potrace 1.16, written by Peter Selinger 2001-2019

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