“The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® declined by 3.6 points in September to 94.2 (1985=100), down from 97.8 in August. The Present Situation Index – based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions – fell by 7.0 points to 125.4. The Expectations Index – based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions – decreased by 1.3 points to 73.4. Expectations have been below the threshold of 80 that typically signals a recession ahead since February 2025. The cutoff date for preliminary results was September 21, 2025,” says the Conference Board’s bad news of the day.
Worse: “Consumers’ views of their Family’s Current and Future Financial Situation both weakened in September. Notably, consumers’ views of their current financial situation recorded the largest one-month drop since we started to collect this data in July 2022. The share of consumers thinking that a recession is very likely over the next 12 months rose slightly in September, to the highest level since May. In addition, more consumers thought that the economy was already in recession.”