In an exhaustively long and detailed – possibly prescription amphetamine-inspired – Thanksgiving forecast outlook, the National Weather Service’s Marquette, Michigan office writes that “Winter Storm Warnings and Watches are in effect for much of the UP as a deepening low pressure tracks across the UP tonight into Wednesday, with an eventual transition to lake effect snowfall. Chances of 12 inches or more of snow are around 100 percent across the north-northwest wind snow belts of the western UP by Thanksgiving, with some spots potentially receiving 2 to 3+ feet.”

After a while it finally cuts to the chase with the snow/lightning combo. “Recent guidance has shifted the winds more north-northwesterly this morning, which in turn would bring a little more snowfall to the north-central as it would have more Lake Superior fetch to work with. In addition, with -15C 850mb air moving over 5C Lake Superior sfc waters, some guidance is picking up on some modest MUCAPE values, potentially even up to 100 J/kg. Thus, while not expected, there is up to a 10 to 15 percent chance that some thundersnow will be realized over the north-northwest snowbelts Wednesday into Thanksgiving morning in the lake enhanced to lake effect snow bands.”

Fun fact: You’ll have a LOT less warning that there’s lightning incoming given that both the flashes and the thunder will be obscured by the snow. It’ll sneak right up on you.