The numbers from this month’s national Marist/NPR/PBS Newshour survey are pretty goddamned grim for Republicans as the pollster found “53 percent of registered voters say they are more likely to vote for the Democratic congressional candidate on the ballot in their district than the Republican (41 percent). In May, the Democrats held a comparable 10-point advantage over the Republicans on the generic ballot question. Independents give the Democratic candidate for Congress a 25-point advantage, 57 percent for the Democrat running for office to 32 percent for the Republican.”
Once again, while this can seem overinflated and exuberant for the the Ds, keep in mind that last December in the Tennessee 7th special election that, at turnout that reached 99.3 percent of the 2022 Midterm for the same seat, the Dem candidate Aftyn Behn improved 13 percent over the 2022 Democrat. Thus a low double-digit national D+ margin is actually seriously realistic in November.
Marist separately found Dem Texas State Representative James Talarico up 50 to 44 percent over Picasso-faced sociopath Attorney General Ken Paxton in the Senate race. That’s probably a little overinflated and exuberant for the the Ds, but the final margin won’t really matter as long as Talarico wins by more votes than Paxton can get thrown out with all the ballot fuckery he’s no doubt already working on. Dem Gina Hinojosa leads Governor Low Energy Greg 49 to 46 percent in that race.