The final Marist College/NPR/PBS national survey of 2024 finds Vice President Kamala Harris leading convicted felon former President Trump 51 to 47 percent among likely voters. Harris is +3 in favorability at 50 to 47 percent favorable/unfavorable while Trump is minus-8 at 45 to 53 fav/unfav.
Worth noting is that in the final 2022 national Marist poll, they found the GOP leading Dems 49 to 46 percent in the generic ballot. The result was GOP 50 to Dems 47. Their final 2018 poll found Dems 50 to GOP 40 on the generic ballot. Result was Dems 53.4 to GOP 44.8 percent. In 2016 nationally they found Hillary at 44 percent to Trump 43 percent in the final survey. The result in the popular vote was Hillary 48.2 percent to Trump 46.1 percent. In October 2020 they found Biden leading Trump 54 to 43 percent but everyone fucked up that year. The pattern seems to be that they were more accurate in the years when it felt like there was more uncertainty overall than in 2018 and 2020 when Dem enthusiasm was clearly off the charts. Might just be a good sign this year.