“Former astronaut Mark Kelly has the Democratic primary on lockdown, as he’s running uncontested. But things are a little murkier for sitting Rep. Martha McSally, who’s facing a primary challenge from businessman Daniel McCarthy. Polling for the GOP primary is very thin, but it’s widely believed McSally has the advantage as the incumbent — albeit one who was appointed to her seat after losing to Democrat Kyrsten Sinema in a bid to replace former Sen. Jeff Flake in 2018, who did not seek reelection that year” Vox reports.
“The question, political observers said, is how much of an advantage McSally actually has. If McSally wins but sees a considerable amount of voters pull away to McCarthy, that could demonstrate little Republican enthusiasm for her as a candidate — and perhaps spell trouble for her in the general election. ‘If there are any issues between McSally and the base, it will be revealed in the primary,’ Paul Bentz, a political consultant in Arizona, told me. ‘If McSally’s victory is smaller than expected, it would spell trouble for her in the general, as she would run the risk of some of the Republicans choosing to stay home — or vote for president but skip her race.'”