Once touted by the White House as an accurate forecast for the coronavirus pandemic in the United States, the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation model from the University of Washington is now predicting nearly 300,000 deaths from COVID-19 in the nation by December 1st.
Based on the current conditions of a patchwork of policies and adoption of mask-wearing mandates in most states, the model forecasts a quarter million coronavirus deaths by Election Day, or roughly 1,000 daily on average.
If the nation continues on this path through November, IHME projects that 295,000 Americans will die of COVID by December 1st. If states start widespread opening of businesses, removing stay at home orders and easing public health restrictions, that number could jump to 390,000 by the end of November.
Conversely, if there’s a national policy of mask-wearing and social distancing implemented, the model reduces the fatalities to 228,000 by December 1st.
The Trump Administration had previously promoted the IHME model in media briefings, but the model fell out of favor with the administration as fatalities mounted and projections escalated.