Ron Brownstein: “The biggest problem with Trump running on restoring order is that his performance in office has caused many voters to view him as the candidate of disorder. In a Yahoo/YouGov national survey conducted immediately after the Republican National Convention last week, only 30 percent of registered voters said they believe that Trump ‘will protect us from the chaos’; fully 50 percent described him as the ‘source of the chaos.'”

“One major reason for that verdict: Trump has not adjusted his combative and impulsive leadership style to respond to the twin crises roiling the nation. That chaotic approach always alienated some voters, but its consequences have become more tangible and visceral when applied to both the outbreak and the protests. ‘Trump’s great success has been to define big problems as political symbols,’ Kettl told me. ‘But the problem with the virus is portraying it as a political symbol runs afoul of people lying in intensive-care units. You can’t just portray it as a symbol when there is a ferocious reality staring people in the face … The same is true on the economy, and the same is true on the issue of race.’ ‘The biggest problem Trump has is that voters are tired of hearing from him, especially when he said everything is fine on coronavirus,’ says one GOP pollster, who spoke with me on the condition of anonymity to discuss the race’s dynamics. ‘It’s not … [The pandemic is] interfering, in his mind, with his economy, that he built, and so he’s got to downplay it. He is a developer, so his reaction is to promise everything. If people see a problem, say, ‘Oh no, that’s not a problem—it’s going to go down to zero.’ This is just how he deals with stuff. It could end up costing him the White House.'”