Matt Lewis: “If you want to know who will win the presidency in 60 days, the real question may be this: What crazy story will dominate the news between now and then? In politics, the battle isn’t just over which candidate you prefer. Often, that determination is downstream from a more urgent question: What issue are you thinking about when you go to the ballot box? This explains why “October surprises’ ‘ (think James Comey reopening his investigation into Hillary’s e-mails) can be definitive (especially for swing voters), and it explains why politicians, at the risk of looking like phonies, parry questions and change the subject. Let’s say it’s Nov. 3, and the question on everyone’s mind before voting is, ‘Why are 1,000 people dying every day from COVID-19?’ In that scenario, Joe Biden is the clear favorite. But if the question is, ‘Why is there so much left-wing rioting in liberal cities,’ then Donald Trump still has a chance. As you can see, a lot of what a campaign is about is fighting over which topic matters most. And while Joe Biden still has the edge, Trump’s ability to drive media narratives and change the subject (and distract the public) means you can never count him out.”