The first presidential debate of the 2020 electoral season will kick off at 9 p.m. ET from Cleveland tonight, with expectations all over the board for the performance of the two candidates, republican President Donald Trump and Democratic nominee Joe Biden.

The 90-minute debate will be split into 15-minute segments, each dealing with a separate topic (in random order), with the candidates given two minutes to respond to each question:

• The Trump and Biden Records
• The Supreme Court
• Covid-19
• The Economy
• Race and Violence in our Cities
• The Integrity of the Election

There will be no commercial breaks.

Here’s what we’re primed to expect, and what the likelihood of the event will be.

Expectation:  The format will be well managed by Fox “News” moderator Chris Wallace.

Reality:  No way in hell.  The questions may relate to the subjects, but once Trump is unleashed, he’s going to go all over the map to generate sound bites and hit talking points.  Biden is a strong debater, but he should not follow Trump’s lead and try to address the Gish Gallop.  By the fourth segment, Wallace will have trouble controlling the give-and-take between the two on stage.

Expectation:  Given the gravity of the event, Trump will act like an adult to show undecided voters that he can, in fact, act “presidential.”

Reality:  You can’t teach an old dog new tricks.  Trump knows that he’s trailing in the polls and that his campaign is in shambles with damning news being released daily:  his tax evasion, his campaign’s financial troubles, his former campaign manager’s suicide attempt.  He needs to score points and score points early to keep people focused on his key argument to lure voters:  that Biden is too feeble and too compromised to be President.

Expectation:  Amy Coney Barrett will be a big part of the conversation.

Reality:  Yes, she will, with Trump pointing to her nomination to the Supreme Court as another 2016 campaign promise fulfilled.  When pressed, however, Trump will not be able to name a judicial position she holds except for being anti-choice and “very conservative.”  Biden, on the other hand, will point to the hypocrisy of republicans for blocking Obama’s nomination of Merrick Garland but rushing through Barrett’s.  He’ll point out that Court appointments will lead to the overturning of the ACA and Roe v. Wade.  And he’ll demonstrate a much more nuanced knowledge of Barrett’s records and what cases that directly impact Americans her appointment will have.

Expectation:  Fox “News” moderator Wallace will conflate the racial injustice issues in the nation with sometimes-violent protests in cities around the country.

Reality:  This will be a tricky issue for Wallace.  Since the debate topics, chosen by Wallace, were released, the single segment on Race and Violence in Our Cities has been lambasted as a poor conflation of two separate and distinct issues.  Wallace will try to tiptoe a fine line, but Trump will smear that line endlessly, as well as refer to the violence as a “Democrat problem.”  Biden will counter by noting all the violence is happening under Trump’s watch, and Trump will go into full authoritarian mode, claiming he would’ve stomped out the violence with the military.

Expectation:  Trump will acknowledge the 200,000 people who died in the coronavirus outbreak.

Reality:  The number will never come from Trump’s mouth.  He’ll say they were all sick with something else, and that the actual impact of the coronavirus was much less, but it killed his great economy.  It was China’s fault.  It was the governor’s fault.  And he’ll demonize New York Governor Andrew Cuomo.  Trump will continue to minimize the societal impact of the virus, saying it was a Chinese plot to take him down because they want Biden to win.

Expectation:  There will be a clear winner.  If Biden has multiple stumbles and stammers, Trump wins.  If Trump goes apeshit, Biden wins.

Reality:  Nope.  Biden will hit the facts of Trump’s record in office.  Trump will hit talking points and conspiracy theories.  Both sides will claim victory–and both sides will be right, for their respective bases.  Fox “News” will have a week’s worth of “highlights” featuring Biden stumbling over words, and they’ll have Trump’s facial mocking to run with.  Biden (and journalists) will have multiple fact checks and information countering Trump’s narrative.

So who wins?  The one who can spur people to go to the polls November 3rd to cast a vote for them–or against their opponent.  In that regard, Donald Trump’s performance–and whether it’s taken as a positive or a negative among voters–will be the sole determining factor.