The margin of Biden’s likelihood of winning the Electoral College increased to 85% in the latest FiveThirtyEight assessment, with Trump having just a 14% chance of winning reelection.
In just 6% of scenarios, Trump wins the popular vote, but FiveThirtyEight assesses that in 9% of scenarios, Trump could lose the popular vote but win the Electoral College. (FiveThirtyEight runs through 40,000 simulations, so rounding may make the numbers no add up precisely.)
The models started widening in Biden’s favor after Labor Day, and Trump’s pathway for election narrows as Election Day nears, voters pick a candidate, and early voting starts in most states.