With a flurry of economic reports due in the next ten days, including the initial estimate of the first quarter GDP due tomorrow and a measurement of inflation due Friday, pundits are predicting lowering top line numbers, but underlying data showing strong economic bones, Reuters reports.
The first quarter GDP is forecast to come in at around 1.1% growth year-over-year, coming off a fourth quarter that saw 6.9% growth, which was an unsustainable rate ignited by companies filling warehouses as consumers left coronavirus protocols. Though businesses continue to fill inventories, the pace fell off from the previous quarter.
On Friday, the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index will be released, which is expected to show a high overall inflation rate elevated by fuel price increases caused by the war in Ukraine. However, core inflation indicators are expected to remain steady or go down, indicating stable market forces. Core inflation was expected to slow just 0.1%, the first slowdown in PCE since October 2020.
Other economic indicators are expected to show a strong economy: household debt versus annual income is expected to be at the lowest it has been in 30 years, indicating improved spending ability and economic strength of households.
The job creation report, due Friday, May 6th, is expected to show continued job growth under Biden, who has already seen seven million jobs created since his inauguration.