Democrats lead Republicans 48 to 41 percent on the 2022 Midterms generic ballot question of the June NPR/PBS Newshour/Marist College poll, a ten point net swing from the April survey in which Republicans led 47 to 44 percent, and further widening the 47-42 Dem lead from May following the initial leak of the Roe v Wade draft decision. The question of “Would you definitely vote for or definitely vote against a candidate for Congress who will support a federal law to restore Roe versus Wade and the right to abortion?” brings an even more dire warning sign for the MAGA party, as 51 percent said “Definitely vote for” to 36 percent “Definitely vote against.”
Biden’s approval rating is also stuck at 40% in this survey, meaning Dems and pro-choice candidates in general are outperforming the president himself by 8 and 11 percent, respectively.
Again, polls are a fucking mess, there’s no one right way to calibrate against response bias and weigh lopsided samples, so on and so forth, but try sprinkling a little cautious optimism sugar on top of your morning bowl of mopey depressed libtard bran flakes. We’d prefer to avoid mentioning again the reason that this cause for cautious optimism is only a baseline, because it’s awful and sickening, though you can read it here if you so choose. The bottom line is at this point worry less about Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell and focus on Speaker of the House Gym Jordan (because Kevin McCarthy’s almost certainly fucked out of that job even with a GOP majority).