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The “recession” that isn’t

Like the vast majority of young Republican politicians, Lauren Boebert is an idiot.  Declaring that the US “officially enter[ed] into a recession” is not just factually inaccurate, it demonstrates that the GED-issued alleged former prostitute abortionist didn’t study economics to “graduate” from high school.

We’re not in a recession–at least, not one of any type the US has seen in its history.  While the current economic data seem to meet the commoner’s definition of a recession–two straight quarters of economic shrinkage–the data will be revised, typically three times, before any such declaration will be made.

Declaring a recession isn’t something former prostitutes are qualified to do.  That’s why the National Board of Economic Research does it:  they’re qualified.  NBER reviews vast amounts of data from various sources, about various things, over various times.  And today’s economic conditions don’t line up with anything they’ve researched before.

Let’s first explain why we’re not in a recession.  Economically, a recession is a sustained loss of economic power.  The “two quarters” rule of thumb is just that:  a rule of thumb.  It’s not a concrete definition.  The US–and the world–is currently in a unique condition.  Nations and regions are shutting down potential economic growth opportunities because of the coronavirus pandemic.  There’s a major land war in Europe, limiting needed food and fuel.  That’s a level of uncertainty that throws data into chaos, so you have to look at larger information.

So now, let’s look at the reasons why we’re not in a recession:  Consumer spending has been steadily increasing since July 2020, when the US was in the first major wave of the coronavirus pandemic.  Household savings are significantly higher than they have been in at least a decade, largely due to frugality of families impacted by the pandemic.  (There’s that word again!)

The Biden Administration has seen massive growth in jobs since it came into office–the fastest to 8 million new jobs created, in under eighteen months.  While that streak is likely to end in light of the current economic turmoil, the US won’t have substantial losses–maybe two or three consecutive months of recorded losses.

Akin to that:  new business starts have skyrocketed since the pandemic.  How bad can consumer visions of the US economy be when millions of people are willing to bypass a steady paycheck for the uncertainty (and personal satisfaction) of starting a business.

The true thing driving this recession is the worldwide shortage of products to buy.  The Fox propaganda network parrots this nightly:  “You can’t buy a new car!”  “Rents are skyrocketing!”  “Where is the baby formula!”  These are all basic supply-and-demand issues:  we simply don’t have enough stock to fulfill need.  Cars and baby formula will be settled in a matter of three months to a year.  The rental housing shortage and pricing are much bigger problems which will extend further down the line as landlords attempt to make up for lost revenue caused by the eviction moratoriums of 2020 and 2021, plus a serious shortage in supply of low- to moderate-income housing.

TL;DR:  It’s not a recession.  Only people with limited understand of economics think it is.  And only idiots declare such based on one economic datapoint.  The world economy is changing, and conservatives haven’t figured it out yet.

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