Believe it or not, a Democrat is leading the race to finish out the term of the dead Alaskan Congressman Don Young, who ceased to be last March at the age of 88. But in Alaska’s rank choice voting, it doesn’t mean much until the votes of third place finisher, Nick Begich, get divided between the two remaining candidates. Using the figures above, former half-turn governor and reality TeeVee personality Sarah Palin would have to get about 14,000 more of Begich’s votes than the Democrat, Mary Peltola, to come out on top. Begich is a third-generation Alaskan Republican–in other words, as establishment as you can imagine, so it’s unknown how they’re split. Will they overwhelmingly support the Republican No Matter Who, support the sensible candidate in Peltola, or leave their second choice blank?