Election data eggheads TargetSmart have modeled the numbers for early and absentee vote turnout by party and determined that, as of Wednesday afternoon, 55.7% of early ballots nationally have been cast by Dems, 33.5% by Republicans, and 10.8% by unaffiliated voters. On their dashboard they compare this to the same point two years ago, showing that 20 days before the election 54.5% of early votes by Dems, 34% by Republicans, and 11.5% by unaffiliateds.

TargetSmart CEO Tom Bonier offered some tips on how to use the data, writing “The early vote is going to give us a decent indication of Dem enthusiasm (though not entirely, more on that soon) but not so much on GOP enthusiasm, since they are much more likely to vote on [election day]. The comparison to previous cycles is important and very imperfect. Almost every state has significantly expanded early voting access since ’18 and many have since limited access somewhat since ’20. So neither is a perfect point of reference… We have breakdowns by party registration and modeled partisanship. Party reg isn’t available in every state. We model party everywhere, but it is a model of self party ID, NOT a prediction of candidate preference. And comparing party models across years is difficult,” among other important caveats to think about when injecting hopium.

“Perhaps my most important note – these are not projections of outcomes or candidate vote totals. This is turnout data in the context of prior elections. We hope this will enhance your understanding of the electorate, but please take it in context,” Bonier concluded.