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CBS projects big youth turnout will save Dem House majority

CBS News’s Battleground tracker update forecasts a 228-207 GOP House majority after the midterms at current trends, but ran a high youth-turnout scenario into their model, finding that Dems would hang on to a 218-217, single seat majority in the chamber if voters 18-30 turn out on election day at the same levels they did in 2018. “We ran our estimates through a turnout model in which younger voters turn out in much higher numbers than our baseline model indicates, bailing Democrats out late in the game. This would run counter to what we’ve seen in recent weeks, both from what young voters tell us in surveys and from early ballot returns, but it isn’t impossible. It’s more akin to what happened four years ago, with voters under 45 and people of color voting in droves,” writes CBS’s election jargon egghead team.

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