The Cook Political Report’s first 2024 Senate ratings are up, and it’s a tough year for Dems’ 51 to 49 majority, with toss-ups in Arizona, Ohio, and West Virginia currently rated as tossups. Arizona would be off the list if not for shitbrain “independent” Kyrsten Sinema given actual Dem Senator Mark Kelly’s 2022 win there, but Ohio and West Virginia are going to be rough for similar reasons. Ohio Dem Senator Sherrod Brown is running for reelection and incumbents are always advantaged, but it’s a presidential year in a red state. Same with Joe Manchin is West Virginia, and that flaky bastard isn’t a sure bet to run. He could face a tough challenge from Republican Governor Jim Justice if he does. It might be better for Democrats if Manchin dips out and goes independent like Sinema did.
Cook also rates Dem-held seats in Montana, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin as lean Democratic, with Montana being somewhat of a surprise given its long red state status.