Fast forward to the end of October.  The jury has reached a decision in the first trial of one of Donald Trump’s co-conspirators from the Fulton County racketeering trial.  This is possible given the trial for Kenneth Chesebro, who invoked his right to a speedy trial under Georgia law, has been set to start on October 23rd.  Maybe this verdict is his, maybe it’s for another one of the defendants who may also make the speedy trial demand.

As Halloween approaches, the nation’s on edge as the first verdict is in.  A lot is on the line.  First, every defense attorney for the other defendants has been following this trial, examining prosecution arguments and defense tactics, grading each.  Those assessments don’t matter; the only one that does is coming from the people in the jury box.

Chesebro–and later, the Kraken–invoked the speedy trial date most likely as a gambit to try to get District Attorney Fani Willis and her prosecutors early and unprepared.  It may have backfired:  Chesebro now has less than 60 days to prepare his defense since Willis called his bluff and submitted a seven-week trial start date.

If this first defendant is found guilty, the work of Willis and her office will be validated.  It will show the other co-conspirators that the argument works with a jury and that the jury did not feel overwhelmed by the facts of the case.  A guilty verdict will undoubtedly push (at least) 17 of the other defendants to reevaluate their positions.  And it might flip one or two–not just in this case but in others being prosecuted federally.

But what happens if the verdict comes back as “not guilty.”  Everything changes.  Trump becomes emboldened from both legal and social media perspectives. The defense gets more aggressive.  People not only start doubting the strategy and argument of Willis, they also question the probability of convicting anyone in a Trump-related election case.

The outcome of the first trial for one of the immediate members of Trump’s various criminal enterprises sets the tone for the rest.  It will also set the tone for the GOP primary and the 2024 election season.  A “not guilty” verdict will strengthen the MAGAts one more time as primary season ramps up.  But a guilty verdict will undoubtedly push some Independents and perhaps some Republicans further from Trump.

One can’t underestimate the importance for Willis’s trial to end with a guilty verdict or guilty plea.  It’s a case whose repercussions won’t end in the courtrooms hosting the other cases, but whose repercussions will be felt in voting booths across the nation.