Of the five early GOP campaign states, Donald Trump only tops the average lead of Party frontrunners from previous elections in two of them, a sign that Trump’s hold on the GOP primary might not be as certain as some polls show, but not a signal his likelihood of winning the states is less. It’s an interesting study from the Washington Post (gift link), showing Trump beating the trend since 1980 in Nevada and Iowa, where he’s spent many nights at rallies while trailing the historical leaders average in New Hampshire, South Carolina and Michigan, where he’s ten points behind the curve.
Is this disastrous for Trump? No, it just shows he’s trailing an average now, but could make up the ground in the weeks before voters go to polls and the field winnows down. And his levels of support now are enough to traditionally win these states’ Party primaries. What the data show, though, is Trump solidifying his base early, making it difficult for challengers Nikki Haley and Ron DeSantis have harder roads to the nomination unless they can unseat some of Trump’s early, most faithful supporters.